PORTSMOUTH vs QPR Prediction Today

December 26, 2025 •

Posted 3 weeks ago

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This prediction for Portsmouth vs QPR considers various factors, including in-depth analysis, injuries, current form, and other tactical outcomes.

CURRENT STANDINGS & CONTEXT

Portsmouth FC

  • Position: 21st/24 (Relegation Battle)
  • Points: 21 from 22 games
  • Record: 5W-6D-11L
  • Status: Just 2 points above the relegation zone
  • Situation: CRITICAL – must secure home points

QPR (Queens Park Rangers)

  • Position: 7th/24 (Playoff Hunt)
  • Points: 34 from 21 games
  • Record: 9W-4D-8L
  • Status: 1 point off playoff places (6th)
  • Momentum: Rising – 4 consecutive home wins

Key Context: 13-point gap between teams. Portsmouth is fighting for survival, and QPR is chasing promotion playoffs.

PORTSMOUTH VS QPR RECENT FORM ANALYSIS

Portsmouth – Last 5 Matches

  1. ✅ Win 2-1 vs Blackburn (H) – Dec 21
  2. ⚪ Draw 1-1 vs Derby (A) – Dec 20
  3. ⚪ Draw 0-0 vs Plymouth (A) – Dec 14
  4. ❌ Loss 0-1 vs Bristol City (A) – Dec 10
  5. ❌ Loss 1-2 vs Swansea (H) – Dec 7

Form: W-D-D-L-L (7 points from 5 games)

  • Unbeaten in the last 3 matches
  • Improving defensively (only 2 goals conceded in last 3)
  • Struggling to score (2 goals in last 3 games)
  • Home form improving (beat Blackburn last game)

QPR – Last 5 Matches

  1. ✅ Win 4-1 vs Leicester City (H) – Dec 20 ⭐
  2. ❌ Loss 1-3 vs Middlesbrough (A) – Dec 13
  3. ✅ Win 2-0 vs West Brom (H) – Dec 10
  4. ✅ Win 2-0 vs Birmingham (H) – Nov 27
  5. ❌ Loss 1-2 vs Norwich (A) – Nov 23

Form: W-L-W-W-L (9 points from 5 games)

  • OUTSTANDING 4-1 demolition of Leicester in last match
  • 4 consecutive home wins
  • Struggles away (2 losses in last 5)
  • Scoring freely (10 goals in last 5 matches)
  • Average attack: 1.6 goals per game

HOME/AWAY SPLIT ANALYSIS

Portsmouth at Fratton Park (Home)

  • Overall: 4W-4D-3L
  • Goals For: 13 (1.18 per game)
  • Goals Against: 15 (1.36 per game)
  • Clean Sheets: 3/11 (27%)
  • Last 5 Home: 1W-3D-1L
  • Recent Home: Beat Blackburn 2-1, Drew with Hull 1-1

Assessment: Modest home record, but Fratton Park can be intimidating. Recently drew too many games at home.

QPR Away from Loftus Road

  • Overall: 4W-2D-5L
  • Goals For: 10 (0.91 per game)
  • Goals Against: 16 (1.45 per game)
  • Clean Sheets: 2/11 (18%)
  • Last 5 Away: 1W-1D-3L
  • Recent Away: Lost 3-1 to Middlesbrough, Lost 2-1 to Norwich

Assessment: VULNERABLE away from home. Away form is QPR’s Achilles heel – losing more away than winning.

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD

Recent Meetings (Last 5)

  1. Portsmouth 2-1 QPR (Feb 22, 2025 – Championship)
  2. QPR 1-2 Portsmouth (Oct 19, 2024 – Championship)
  3. Portsmouth 1-1 QPR (Jan 26, 2019 – Championship)
  4. QPR 2-0 Portsmouth (Feb 5, 2019 – FA Cup)
  5. QPR 0-2 Portsmouth (Aug 28, 2019 – Championship)

Overall H2H (Last 10 matches): Portsmouth 3W | QPR 3W | 4 Draws

Key Stats:

  • Portsmouth unbeaten vs QPR in last 3 competitive games (2W-1D)
  • Last QPR away win at Fratton Park: May 2000 (24 years ago!)
  • QPR haven’t won at Portsmouth in 4 tries (1D-3L)
  • 7 of the last 10 meetings featured under 2.5 goals
  • Recent meetings have been low-scoring and tight

Psychological Edge: Portsmouth has recent dominance, especially at home.

INJURY & TEAM NEWS

Portsmouth – MAJOR INJURY CRISIS

Confirmed Out:

  • ❌ Josh Knight (Defender) – Groin injury
  • ❌ Conor Shaughnessy (Defender) – Hamstring
  • ❌ Jacob Farrell (Defender) – Groin
  • ❌ Connor Ogilvie (Defender) – Knee injury
  • ❌ Florian Bianchini (Midfielder)
  • ❌ Thomas Waddingham (Forward) – Thigh
  • ❌ Callum Lang (Forward – KEY PLAYER) – Season-ending injury

Doubtful:

  • ⚠ Josh Murphy (Midfielder) – Hamstring picked up vs Derby

Returning:

  • ✅ Zak Swanson (Defender) – Back from illness
  • ✅ Ibane Bowat (Defender) – Back from injury
  • ✅ Kusini Yengi (Forward) – Back after 3 months out

Impact: Portsmouth’s defense is DECIMATED with 4 key defenders out. This is a massive vulnerability.

QPR – Relatively Healthy

Confirmed Out:

  • ❌ Ziyad Larkeche (Defender)
  • ❌ Harvey Vale (Midfielder)
  • ❌ Rayan Kolli (Forward)
  • ❌ Ilias Chair (Midfielder – Key creative player)

Doubtful:

  • ⚠ Jake Clarke-Salter (Defender) – Awaiting scan results

Impact: Minimal disruption. Core squad available. Chair’s absence offset by Dembélé’s excellent form.

Advantage: QPR by a huge margin. Portsmouth’s defensive injuries are catastrophic.

KEY PLAYERS & TACTICAL MATCHUPS

Portsmouth Key Players

Colby Bishop (Forward)

  • Top scorer with 4 goals
  • Physical presence, hold-up play
  • Needs service to be effective
  • vs Jimmy Dunne will be a crucial battle

Andre Dozzell (Midfielder)

  • Scored vs Blackburn in the last game
  • Creative hub, 12 assists this season
  • Key to Portsmouth’s build-up

Nicolas Schmid (Goalkeeper)

  • Under pressure with defensive injuries
  • Will face high shot volume

QPR Key Players

Rumarn Burrell (Forward) ⭐⭐⭐

  • 9 GOALS – Top scorer
  • 2 assists vs Leicester (Man of Match quality)
  • 52.9% shot accuracy
  • 3 key passes per game
  • DANGER MAN #1

Richard Kone (Forward)

  • 5 goals, including one vs Leicester
  • Pace and direct running
  • Scores in big moments
  • Physical threat in the box

Karamoko Dembélé (Midfielder/Winger) ⭐⭐

  • Scored vs Leicester
  • 2 assists in the last game
  • Creative spark, dribbling ability
  • Best form of his QPR career

Koki Saito (Winger)

  • Scored opener vs Leicester (2nd minute!)
  • Right-wing threat
  • Work rate and positioning

Jimmy Dunne (Defender)

  • Rock at center-back
  • Aerial dominance
  • Assisted goal vs Leicester

STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN

Attacking Stats

Category Portsmouth QPR
Goals Scored (Season) 18 32
Goals Per Game 0.82 1.45
xG Per Match ~1.2 ~1.6
Shots Per Game 9.5 12.8
Big Chances Created 15 28
Assists (Total) 12 20

Analysis: QPR nearly DOUBLE Portsmouth’s goal output. Far more creative and clinical.

Defensive Stats

Category Portsmouth QPR
Goals Conceded 28 31
Goals Conceded Per Game 1.27 1.48
Clean Sheets 5 5
Tackles Per Game 17.2 15.8
Interceptions 11.3 10.1

Analysis: Similar defensive records, but Portsmouth is hampered by injuries. QPR is conceding more but scoring far more.

Possession & Style

Category Portsmouth QPR
Average Possession 48.9% 46.8%
Pass Accuracy 73% 76%
Style Defensive, counter-attack Balanced, direct
Formation 4-2-3-1 4-4-2

TRENDS & PATTERNS

Goal Patterns

  • Portsmouth: Only scored 2+ goals in 5/22 games (23%)
  • QPR: Scored 2+ goals in 11/21 games (52%)
  • Recent H2H: Under 2.5 goals in 7 of last 10
  • QPR Away: Over 2.5 goals in 8 of last 10 away games

First Half Performance

  • Portsmouth: Slow starters, often concede first
  • QPR: Fast starts (scored in 2nd minute vs Leicester!)

Set Pieces

  • Portsmouth: Vulnerable to headers and crosses
  • QPR: Strong aerial presence (Dunne, Cook)
  • 3 of QPR’s 4 goals vs Leicester came from crosses/set pieces

BETTING MARKET ANALYSIS

Odds (Average)

  • Portsmouth Win: 2.54 (39.4%)
  • Draw: 3.15-3.30 (30.5%)
  • QPR Win: 2.48-2.70 (38.5%)

Popular Betting Markets

  • Over 2.5 Goals: 2.00 (50% probability)
  • BTTS: 1.90 (52% probability)
  • QPR Win or Draw (Double Chance): 1.40 (71% probability)
  • Richard Kone Anytime Scorer: 2.60 (38.5%)

EXPERT PREDICTIONS FROM 5+ SOURCES

1. TipStrike

  • Prediction: QPR Win or Draw (Double Chance)
  • Reasoning: QPR’s form and Portsmouth’s injuries
  • Score: QPR 2-1 or Draw 1-1
  • Confidence: Under 2.5 goals

2. Squawka/Sky Sports

  • Prediction: QPR Win
  • Odds: 13/10 (2.30)
  • Reasoning: Superior attacking metrics, 32 goals vs Portsmouth’s 18
  • Key: QPR’s firepower decisive

3. Compare.bet

  • Prediction: QPR Away Win
  • Odds: 11/8 (2.38) – “Excellent value”
  • Reasoning: QPR better form, Portsmouth struggling for goals
  • Anytime Scorer: Richard Kone

4. Sports Mole

  • Prediction: Draw 1-1
  • Reasoning: Portsmouth’s home H2H record, QPR’s poor Boxing Day record (1W-2D-8L in last 11)
  • Note: QPR haven’t won away at Portsmouth since 2000

5. PlaymakerStats

  • Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (7 of last 10 H2H)
  • BTTS: No (both teams struggle away)
  • Outcome: Tight, cagey game

6. Ladbrokes/Coral

  • Prediction: QPR Win with goals
  • Key Bet: Over 2.5 goals and QPR Win
  • Player Focus: Burrell (9 goals) main threat

MY TACTICAL ANALYSIS

Portsmouth’s Game Plan

  1. Defensive Setup: Sit deep with 4-4-2 low block
  2. Exploit Injuries: Use makeshift defense, avoid high press
  3. Counter-Attack: Quick transitions through Murphy/Bishop
  4. Set Pieces: Target QPR’s aerial weakness
  5. Crowd Factor: Use Fratton Park atmosphere

Weaknesses to Exploit:

  • QPR’s away form (4W-2D-5L)
  • QPR’s defensive frailties (31 goals conceded)
  • History: Portsmouth won last 2 H2H at home

QPR’s Game Plan

  1. High Press: Exploit Portsmouth’s makeshift defense
  2. Wide Attacks: Burrell and Saito stretching play
  3. Pace: Kone’s direct running vs slow defenders
  4. Set Pieces: Dunne/Cook aerial threat
  5. Early Goal: Fast start like vs Leicester

Weaknesses to Exploit:

  • Portsmouth’s defensive injuries (4 key defenders out)
  • Portsmouth’s low scoring (18 goals in 22 games)
  • Portsmouth’s slow starts

KEY BATTLES

1. Colby Bishop vs Jimmy Dunne

  • Physical vs Technical
  • Bishop needs service, and Dunne is excellent in the air
  • Edge: Dunne (better form, better team)

2. Makeshift Portsmouth Defense vs Burrell/Kone

  • Injured/inexperienced defenders vs in-form attackers
  • Edge: QPR attackers by a huge margin

3. Midfield Control: Dozzell vs Madsen/Varane

  • Portsmouth’s creativity vs QPR’s energy
  • Edge: QPR (better quality, depth)

4. Set Pieces

  • Both teams threat from set plays
  • QPR’s aerial dominance vs Portsmouth’s desperation
  • Edge: QPR

FINAL PREDICTION & CONFIDENCE LEVELS

My Prediction: QPR WIN (2)

Score Prediction: Portsmouth 1-2 QPR

Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%)

Reasoning:

  1. ✅ QPR’s superior form (4-1 vs Leicester, 4 home wins in row)
  2. ✅ Portsmouth’s catastrophic defensive injuries
  3. ✅ QPR’s attacking firepower (32 goals vs 18)
  4. ✅ Burrell (9 goals) and Kone (5 goals) in red-hot form
  5. ✅ QPR motivated for playoff push
  6. ⚠ HOWEVER: QPR’s away form is poor (4W-2D-5L)
  7. ⚠ Portsmouth unbeaten vs QPR in last 3 competitive games
  8. ⚠ QPR haven’t won at Fratton Park since 2000

Alternative Scenarios:

If Draw (X):

  • Confidence: 25%
  • Portsmouth digs deep, organizes defensively
  • QPR’s away struggles continue
  • Score: 1-1 or 0-0

If Portsmouth Win (1):

  • Confidence: 15%
  • Home crowd lifts team
  • QPR are complacent after Leicester win
  • Yengi returns with impact
  • Score: 2-1 Portsmouth

BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

Best Bet ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

QPR Double Chance (2X) @ 1.40

  • Covers QPR win OR draw
  • 71% implied probability
  • QPR’s quality should get at least a point

Value Bet ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Richard Kone Anytime Scorer @ 2.60

  • In-form (scored vs Leicester)
  • Faces a makeshift defense
  • 5 goals this season

Safe Accumulator Bet ⭐⭐⭐

Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.40

  • QPR is averaging 1.6 goals/game
  • Both teams scored in 4/7 recent H2H
  • High probability

Risky but Rewarding ⭐⭐

QPR Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 3.50+

  • If QPR’s attack clicks like vs Leicester
  • Portsmouth must push forward (desperation)
  • Could be 3-1 or 2-1 QPR

Avoid

❌ Portsmouth Win – Too many injuries, low scoring ❌ Under 1.5 Goals – QPR’s firepower too strong

X-FACTORS & WILDCARDS

Portsmouth’s Hope

  1. Kusini Yengi Return: Fresh after 3 months out
  2. Fratton Park Crowd: Boxing Day atmosphere
  3. Desperation: Fighting for survival
  4. H2H Record: Won last 2 home games vs QPR

QPR’s Advantages

  1. Momentum: Demolished Leicester 4-1
  2. Squad Depth: Can rotate, Portsmouth can’t
  3. Quality Gap: 13 points clear for a reason
  4. Burrell Form: 9 goals, 2 assists vs Leicester

FINAL VERDICT

PREDICTED OUTCOME: QPR WIN (2)

Most Likely Score: Portsmouth 1-2 QPR

Three Most Likely Outcomes:

  1. QPR Win (2) – 80% confidence ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  2. Draw (X) – 25% confidence ⭐⭐
  3. Portsmouth Win (1) – 15% confidence ⭐

Why QPR Should Win:

  • Far superior form and attacking quality
  • Portsmouth’s defensive crisis (4 defenders out)
  • Playoff motivation vs relegation desperation
  • Burrell/Kone in devastating form

Why Portsmouth Could Get a Result:

  • Home advantage and crowd support
  • H2H record (unbeaten in last 3 vs QPR)
  • QPR’s poor away form this season
  • QPR’s terrible Boxing Day record (1W in last 11)

The Deciding Factor:

Portsmouth’s injuries. If they had a full-strength defense, this would be a genuine 50-50. But with 4 key defenders out facing Burrell (9 goals) and Kone in red-hot form, it’s too much to overcome.

FINAL PICK: QPR WIN (2)

The post PORTSMOUTH vs QPR Prediction Today first appeared on KaziNiKazi Digital and is written by Emanuel S..